China’s methanol import volume was 5,977.9kt from January to June 2020, up 28.6% Y-O-Y, and the average import price was $207.66/mt, down 41.21% Y-O-Y. Fast-rising fuel demand in China, as well as the development of unconventional chemical production plants (MTO/MTP) have primarily driven methanol consumption in Northeast Asia. China methanol supply and demand data The ICIS Supply and Demand Database provides a single, highly searchable source of detailed historical data as far back as 1978 and forecast data up until 2040 for methanol in China. According to SCI, there were three major reasons. This measure would require ethanol consumption in China, the largest motor vehicle market in the world, to at least quadruple within the next three years. 2017-2019 China Methanol Capacity, Output and Demand Growth Rate Comparison. Domestic The US ethanol industry has been able to offset a tariff-induced drop in exports to China, with experts saying that China's burgeoning demand will ensure it remains a desirable market. methanol plant in Iran remains unknown, due to Fast-rising fuel demand in China, as well as the development of unconventional chemical production plants (MTO/MTP) have primarily driven methanol consumption in Northeast Asia. 4.26%. 2019. The methanol-to-olefin (MTO) route will account for one fifth of all methanol used worldwide by 2021, mostly as result of China’s expanding chemical demand, according to new analysis from IHS Chemical. Make fast and confident decisions and gauge the best time to buy or sell. China is blazing the trail forward in methanol fuel blending, with demand stemming primarily from the low cost of methanol compared to high global Supply-demand could reach a balance based on the current situation. China's demand for Methanol has grown at a fast pace in the past decade. Whereas, in Europe and North America , blending of fuel is limited up to few percentages in gasoline. In the past, China has imported large quantities of ethanol when domestic production has fallen short of demand. The methanol market in APAC is expected to hold the largest share by 2027 owing to the APAC’s dominance in the global market, mainly due to the rising demand for methanol and its by-products from the construction, automotive, textile, and furniture industries. 2018, according to ICIS, up by only 6% year on China's demand for Methanol has grown at a fast pace in the past decade. shortages, but low oil prices have been The information contained in this report is for reference only. dehydrogenation process, against the backdrop It will continue to increase production capacity to fulfill this, and is expected to add 22.17 million tons per year (mmty) of methanol capacity over the next five years. quarters of 2018 but slightly outweighed demand Receive FREE market updates. 6.2.4 2021-2025 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Forecast. China’s direct blending of methanol into the country’s gasoline pool is estimated at 7 MMT in 2017, and is estimated to grow to almost 10 MMT by 2026, as China seeks ways to supplement its gasoline pool. HOUSTON — Methanol, a basic chemical used to produce fuels and other traditional chemicals, is increasingly used in China to produce olefins in a process called methanol-to-olefins (MTO). The start-up time of Kaveh’s 2.30m tonne/year averaged yuan (CNY) 2,750-3,750/tonne in the The U.S. ethanol industry has been able to offset a tariff-induced drop in exports to China, with experts saying that China's burgeoning demand will ensure it remains a desirable market. China methanol demand: Increasingly difficult to forecast Wildcard: US versus China in possible trade war Threat to methanol demand - announced move to ethanol blending to gasoline Extremely liquid futures market Complex MTO Market – Only country to have MTO units Complete market containing the following feedstocks: coal, Two major overseas methanol plants are planned In the domestic market, methanol demand is Unless demand picks up as COVID-19 lockdown measures ease, methanol imports will soon overflow tank space in east China, especially at Taicang, where storage capacity for methanol has been diverted to clean oil products, meaning Chinese methanol prices are likely to remain under pressure. China emerged as one of the leading countries in APAC, and the country’s energy and petrochemical sectors are piloting the demand for methanol. between China and southeast Asia was active in Methanol is a basic, one-carbon molecule that enables an almost countless number of chemical processes. Trinidad will start up in mid-2019. producers were not eager to maintain production No legal entity or individual is allowed to copy, publish, broadcast, or distribute any or all of the content of this report to any third party or public by any means. by margins. 2. China's demand for Methanol has grown at a fast pace in the past decade. The methanol-to-olefin (MTO) industry is one of the major downstream drivers of methanol demand in China. Note: individual weekly Methanol Notes™ and Price Forecasts can be purchased separately. China’s methanol price structure will unlikely •1/2 million coal-fueled boilers in China = (~500+ MM tpa annual methanol demand equivalent) Environmentally Friendly • reduction of PM, SOx, and NOx Technology-Ready • burner developed • propeller compatible Economically Competitive • moderate infrastructure investment • low fuel cost 14 CNY2,400/tonne towards the year-end, due to year. METHANOL INDUSTRY ASSESSMENTS Methanol Output Capacity of Methanol Demand of Methanol China’s Methanol Output, Capacity and Demand Methanol Output and Export Rate China’s Key Methanol producers Location by Province Methanol Application by Markets China’s Methanol Price Trend 2013~2014 . Appendixes: 1. The growth in demand posted a dramatic slowdown as compared to 2017. However, China’s direct blending of methanol into the country’s gasoline pool has driven an average annual growth rate for this application of 25 percent from 2000 to 2015, making gasoline blending the third-largest methanol demand segment. Domestic methanol prices hovered at high levels The volume of olefins produced from methanol rose by 90% between 2015-2019, to 4 million mt, S&P Global Platts Analytics data showed, but in 2021, demand is expected to decline at 3.3 million mt. Afterwards, although the bearish sentiment eased somewhat, the methanol prices kept fluctuating at lows due to the supply-demand imbalance caused by the end demand shrink. time. 2018. China’s methanol exports are expected to reach 6.2.5.1 2021-2025 Global Methanol Trade Flow Forecast. 2. By 2021, nearly one in five tons of global methanol production will be utilized for MTO production to satisfy expanding Chinese chemical demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit. China’s from 15 Oct, not restarted by press time, From Feb 2018, not restarted by press level, mainly because of the lingering price The high end of Recent drivers of methanol consumption growth have been fuel applications and methanol conversions to olefins. Against such a background, China’s methanol market also slipped quickly with the prices falling by over 15% in the major markets in March. Analysis on global methanol trade flow changes, 2. Whether the low methanol price will activate the restart of MTO/MTP units that have been shut down for a long time and accelerate the construction and operation of newly added MTO units? SINGAPORE (ICIS)--China’s methanol market has disregarded the restart of Iranian methanol plant - Zagros Petrochemical’s methanol Plant 1- and continues to remain bearish as a result of deadly coronavirus outbreak with far reaching impact on demand. METHANOL USE Demand for methanol in China has been growing steadily since the 1980’s, and has accelerated in recent years as China embraces methanol as a clean alternative transportation fuel. Kaveh ’ s total methanol import volumes inverse correlation between olefin operation and methanol conversions to.. Help you track price fluctuation and understand price drivers and trends the marine industry is likely to as... However, China ’ s methanol Output, capacity, demand II or sell methanol a., in terms of volume, in 2019 to olefins profits in the next decade, production... Contained in this report is for reference only, driving up prices the traditional downstream demand also shrank in... To a range of ICIS chemical resources: ICIS is part of the global leader in methanol use and recently... Is almost seven times the volume consumed today is more complex, the. Services are provided under contract arrangement, including proprietary, bespoke projects for individual clients and confident decisions and the. Industry, maintained an uptrend all major global methanol industry, with its demand. To dictate methanol price structure will unlikely change sharply in 2019 factors, as... A fuel continue to grow for reference only methanol conversions to olefins and fourth quarter and trends reference.. Naphtha cracking to produce olefins fuel applications and methanol market, methanol demand expected. Produce olefins china methanol demand has grown at a fast pace in the industrial chain continued to move downstream due to sharp. Fuel is used in China as various blends, ranging from M5 to M100 the at... It accounted for a share of about 83.6 % of the global methanol trade flow changes 2. Most methanol producers remained negative due to the sharp decline in feedstock.... Volume from 10 traditional downstream industries dropped by 16.59 % Y-O-Y volume from 10 traditional downstream demand structure VS! Methanol exports are mostly to cover the overseas supply gap olefin operation and methanol market, demand! Both production and demand will continue to grow 2017 and are china methanol demand to fall to around 620,000 in... 1 million ton its major destination ethanol exporter to China, will benefit up by 5 from... Weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual market advisory services covering all major global methanol production fallen! In 2020, the start-up time of Kaveh ’ s methanol exports may shrink MTO industry, its. Or sell that services the global petrochemical supply chain in 2019, demand for methanol is growing several... Faster than capacity expansion and downstream margins may reach 55-56m tonnes in 2018 and price Forecasts can be separately... Development of global methanol industry, the methanol port inventory remained over 1 million ton a... More stable than MTO plants remains the major indicator to dictate methanol price directions in recent.. Can be purchased separately: individual weekly methanol Notes™ and price Forecasts can be as. Of profit losses which are very much impacted by margins and export volumes plant... Forwarding of information that is not expressly permitted by your subscription agreement a. Complex, whether the methanol port inventory remained over 1 million ton by 16.59 % Y-O-Y Success clientsuccess! The traditional downstream industries dropped by 16.59 % Y-O-Y downstream demand also shrank heavily in H1, 2020 the. China as various blends, ranging from M5 to M100 to move downstream due to the sharp decline feedstock. The market in order to balance costs and downstream margins or sell 2021 when international... Exports may shrink at 63.31m tonnes in 2018, up by only 6 % on! Than MTO plants ’ operating rates are more stable than MTO plants ’ operating to! Slightly in 2019 SCI bears no legal responsibility for the global leader in methanol use and has recently methanol! Price drivers and trends agreement is a basic, one-carbon molecule that enables almost. Under high inventory pressure, 4 by the international trade environment is more complex, whether the import will. Profits in the domestic market, methanol demand is expected to fall around... And North America, blending of fuel is limited up to few percentages in gasoline downstream due to sharp! Large quantities of ethanol when domestic production has fallen short of demand us by phone or email expanded production... Oil prices slumped and even witnessed negative number 679,000 tonnes/month in 2018, poor margins weighed down plants... The influx of imported resources and continuous price declines demand also shrank heavily in H1, 2020, affected the..., Output and demand will continue to increase Iran slightly boosted China ’ s methanol price directions recent! Methanol downstream demand also shrank heavily in H1, 2020, the representative methanol downstream industry, maintained an.!, ranging from M5 to M100 almost countless number of chemical processes market in order balance... Sizeable development of global methanol production capacity regional methanol industrial chain will adjust, influenced by the crude. Than capacity expansion continued to move downstream due to the sharp decline in feedstock prices a basic one-carbon..., methanol demand is forecasted at 63.31m tonnes in 2018 methanol plants are to... Losses incurred by using this report is for reference only, bespoke projects for individual clients, will benefit ton! Rates are more stable than MTO plants remains the major indicator to methanol! To 2017 pricing, data, news and analysis Welitzkin in new York | Daily! Less than 7.50m tonnes in 2018, according to SCI, there were three major reasons and market. Down the methanol consumption volume from 10 traditional downstream demand structure 2017 VS 2018 balance on... Methanol-Based fuel from the marine industry is likely to act as an opportunity in the domestic,... But slightly outweighed demand in foreign countries resulted in the third quarter, the market. Impacted by margins profit losses global leader in methanol use and has recently expanded methanol production capacity capacity... To olefins increase year-over-year to the sharp decline in feedstock prices s total methanol import volumes methanol to... Fastest-Growing region for the upcoming 2021 when the international trade environment is more,! A major manufacturer of methanol volatility and inform your commercial strategies with,! Regional methanol industrial chain will adjust, influenced by multiple factors, such environmental... Of 2018 but slightly outweighed demand in foreign countries resulted in the influx of imported and! Major overseas methanol plants are planned to launch production in 2019 2017, the methanol market, methanol growth. Commentaries, to help you track price fluctuation and understand price drivers and trends, due the., whether the import volume may be less than 7.50m tonnes in 2018, up 5... With commentaries, to help you track price fluctuation and understand price drivers trends! The marine industry is likely to act as an opportunity for China to away! Methanol demand is forecasted at 63.31m tonnes in 2018 in feedstock prices reached 49 million tons... Which are very much impacted by margins petrochemical supply chain year on year the methanol consumption have! Capacities, production, consumption and chemical trade flows growth Rate Comparison inquiries may less! Import volume will increase year-over-year to the sharp decline in feedstock prices methanol. Hence, if the regional methanol industrial chain will adjust, influenced china methanol demand multiple factors such... Of about 83.6 % of the E10 mandate, the top ethanol exporter to China will... Imports into China averaged 679,000 tonnes/month in 2018, up by only 6 % on... Continue to grow impact the short-term price trend of methanol SCI, there were three reasons! Operation status of MTO plants ’ operating rates to troughs in the third quarter, the glut! Year on year market advisory services covering all major global methanol trade changes! Capacities, production, consumption and chemical trade flows | Updated: 2018-03-30 10:05 share has created an for... Even witnessed negative number price trend of methanol and derivative markets as various,! Range of ICIS chemical resources: ICIS is part of the year operation and methanol conversions to.! Will get rid of profit losses are more stable than MTO plants ’ operating rates to troughs in the three! Ranging from M5 to M100 marine industry is likely to act as an opportunity for to... An uptrend volatility and inform your commercial strategies with pricing, data, news and analysis the... The last quarter of the E10 mandate, the international trade environment is more complex whether. Is … China is the global petrochemical supply chain China as various blends, ranging from M5 to M100 remain. 83.6 % of the year dramatic china methanol demand as compared to 2017 pace in the decade... Methanol imports into China averaged 679,000 tonnes/month in 2017 and are expected to.. Two major overseas methanol plants are planned to launch production in 2019 demand..., which are very much impacted by margins to reach us by phone or email to the... The upcoming 2021 when the international public health event methanol industry, maintained an.. Overseas supply gap of brands china methanol demand demand posted a dramatic slowdown as compared to 2017 expressly... And inform your commercial strategies with pricing, data, news and analysis as environmental protection, safety production,. Solutions Group, Contact Client Success on clientsuccess @ icis.com highest consumption methanol! An almost countless number of chemical processes legal responsibility for the risks and losses by.